Authers Note

Connectivity climbs post crisis

Tue, 18 Jun 2013 05:00:03 GMT

Interdependency between banks, insurers and countries through financial instruments was a factor blamed for the financial crisis. Now, academics are trying to measure it. Bob Merton, professor of finance at MIT Sloan, explains to John Authers that credit seems even more interconnected now.

Perils of financial openness

Fri, 14 Jun 2013 05:02:56 GMT

Economic theory suggests opening your capital account will be rewarded with faster growth. Hélène Rey, professor of economics at London Business School, explains to FT leader writer Ferdinando Giugliano why the risks often trump the benefits.

Emerging markets: collateral damage?

Thu, 13 Jun 2013 04:59:47 GMT

Money is flowing from emerging markets back to the developed world on expectations that US bond yields will keep rising. Martin Sandbu, economics leader writer, discusses with Long View columnist John Authers whether there are positives to this.

The cost of Scottish independence

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 05:06:00 GMT

Next year Scotland will vote on becoming an independent country, but what might it mean for its economy and currency? LSE visiting professor and FT columnist John Kay discusses the options with senior investment columnist John Authers.

Maturing emerging markets

Tue, 11 Jun 2013 04:59:21 GMT

The distinction between emerging markets and developed markets is eroding as EM financial systems mature. Ewen Cameron Watt, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, tells Long View columnist John Authers how emerging markets are growing up.

Finding the 5% plus solution

Fri, 07 Jun 2013 04:07:15 GMT

Returns from a traditional 60 per cent stocks-40 per cent bonds portfolio are at historic lows. Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management, tells Long View’s John Authers his strategy for exploiting market anomalies that could deliver strong returns.

A tropical debt crisis

Thu, 06 Jun 2013 07:27:49 GMT

The Caribbean is going through its toughest time since independence, with many of the islands struggling with huge debt and a weak economy. Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at Exotix, talks to the FT’s Robin Wigglesworth about the region’s outlook.

Tide turns for austerity

Tue, 04 Jun 2013 00:24:00 GMT

Tight fiscal controls are bad for the health of developed economies, says Joachim Fels, chief international economist at Morgan Stanley. He also talks to John Authers, senior investment columnist, about the trend towards easier monetary policy, even from the European Central Bank.

Concerns about unwinding in US bond market

Mon, 03 Jun 2013 00:08:00 GMT

Concern about a disorderly unwind in the US Treasury bond market grows despite yields now comfortably moving above 2 per cent. John Authers, FT’s senior investment columnist, asks Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, if there is cause for alarm.

Martin Wolf on Japan's economy

Fri, 31 May 2013 10:48:48 GMT

Since Haruhiko Kuroda became Bank of Japan governor there have been big shifts in the Japanese markets. The FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf discusses Japan’s path with leader writer Martin Sandbu.

Don't cry for growth Argentina

Wed, 29 May 2013 05:51:32 GMT

Argentina was prosperous just 100 years ago but it now finds itself outside the club of rich nations. Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, talks to Long View columnist John Authers about whether other countries should fear an Argentina scenario.

Demographic death knell of triple A

Tue, 28 May 2013 05:30:50 GMT

The impact of caring for ageing populations in the coming decades has eased slightly as governments tackle the issue. But, as Marko Mrsnik, a sovereign credit analyst with Standard & Poor's, explains to capital markets editor Ralph Atkins, triple-A assets could become a rare asset indeed.

Profitless rally

Fri, 24 May 2013 04:36:07 GMT

Even after this week's sell-offs, 2013 has seen an impressive rally in equities. Rob Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citi, discusses with Long View columnist John Authers why the climb has come despite flat or declining company profits.

Abenomics is nothing new

Thu, 23 May 2013 04:52:40 GMT

Far from a new beginning, Yasunari Ueno, Mizuho's chief market economist, says that those who believe in Abenomics are suffering from a bout of amnesia. The FT's Ben McLannahan reports from Tokyo.

Flaws of financial transaction tax

Tue, 21 May 2013 12:34:00 GMT

A 'Robin Hood' tax on financial transactions was seen as a way to discourage speculative market trades. Capital markets editor Ralph Atkins and FT Trading Room editor Philip Stafford discuss how turning theory into practice is proving a challenge.

Wolf on averting climate chaos

Tue, 21 May 2013 05:18:37 GMT

Global carbon dioxide emissions have increased sharply as the developing world industrialises. Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, tells Long View columnist John Authers why this is a problem and how it can be tackled.

Carney's UK strategy

Fri, 17 May 2013 05:24:03 GMT

Things are looking up, according to Mervyn King's final inflation report for the Bank of England. Gavyn Davies, chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management, tells Long View columnist John Authers that the strategy of his successor Mark Carney may well borrow a lot from the US Federal Reserve.

Unconfident Brazilians

Wed, 15 May 2013 05:57:00 GMT

Brazil's middle class has been feeling the pinch, and worries over personal debt and inflation have shaken their confidence. Brazil Confidential’s principal Richard Lapper discusses with Long View columnist John Authers whether consumer confidence will recover.

Land of the rising sun and falling yen

Wed, 15 May 2013 05:07:36 GMT

This time it is different - for the first time in decades, the yen has fallen against the dollar for eight months running. But Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist with City Index, tells Long View columnist John Authers that the yen will continue to sink.

Money in energy efficiency?

Tue, 14 May 2013 05:03:27 GMT

The world's demand for energy is rising. Carbon emissions are also rising. Sarbjit Nahal, thematic strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects this to drive investment in more efficient energy use. He discusses with Long View columnist John Authers the opportunities this could create.

Africa deserves the hype

Fri, 10 May 2013 04:19:33 GMT

Africa is a land of opportunity and it may be doing a lot better than its data are telling us. Adam Robert Green, senior reporter with This is Africa, discusses with Long View columnist John Authers why GDP in many of the continent's nations has been underestimated and why the opportunities need to be assessed country by country.

Junk's heyday is here and now

Thu, 09 May 2013 06:02:20 GMT

Junk was king in the 1980s but both defaults and yields are now far lower than they were then. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank's global head of fundamental credit strategy, explains why to Long View columnist John Authers, and warns that such low default rates may be unhealthy.

Letta's growth plan – more of a pipe dream?

Wed, 08 May 2013 05:02:35 GMT

Enrico Letta, Italy's new prime minister wants to cut taxes on property and labour, increase spending on education and maintain the deficit target Rome has agreed with Brussels. Riccardo Barbieri, chief European economist at Mizuho International, considers with FT leader writer Ferdinando Giugliano whether Mr Letta's growth plan is realistic.

Hunting for opportunities

Tue, 07 May 2013 09:29:01 GMT

Growth appears to be non-existent in the developed world, or sluggish at best, but markets are at all-time highs. Hans Stoter, chief investment officer of ING Investment Management, discusses with John Authers, Long View columnist, where the opportunities for investors can be found.

Asean leads the world

Fri, 03 May 2013 05:16:35 GMT

The top emerging stock markets over the past two years were the Philippines and Thailand. Denise Law, director of financial research at the FT's newly launched Asean Confidential service, discusses with Long View columnist John Authers what is driving southeast Asian stocks and what risks and opportunities lie ahead.

Defensive rally

Thu, 02 May 2013 05:00:39 GMT

It is a rare stock market that is driven by defensives. Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs discusses with Long View columnist John Authers how the hunt for yield and risk aversion is making companies with reliable revenues most attractive.

Will 'Super Mario' come to the rescue?

Wed, 01 May 2013 05:43:47 GMT

Although it has avoided break-up, the eurozone economy remains in a fragile state. Growth is weak, southern European SMEs are struggling and inflation is below target. The pressure is on Mario Draghi, ECB president, to announce bolder measures at Thursday's ECB meeting. Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays, considers Draghi's options with capital markets editor Ralph Atkins.

Deflated equity capital markets

Tue, 30 Apr 2013 05:09:01 GMT

Banks' revenues and equity volumes have fallen sharply since the financial crisis. Craig Coben, head of equity capital markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, explains to the FT's Alexandra Stevenson what is behind the fall and what conditions are needed to bring it back to life.

GDP fillip for Osborne

Fri, 26 Apr 2013 05:48:29 GMT

The UK economy grew 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Chris Giles, economics editor, discusses with economics correspondent Sarah O'Connor how signs of consumer strength offer encouragement to chancellor George Osborne amid the persistent economic stagnation.

Matolcsy's mortgage problem in Hungary

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 05:00:11 GMT

Foreign currency debt - that is the problem facing György Matolcsy, Hungary's central banker known for his unorthodox policies. More than half the household and company debt in Hungary is not in forints. Peter Attard Montalto, emerging markets economist at Nomura, discusses with deputy emerging markets editor Jonathan Wheatley how Hungary is tackling this and the resilience of foreign investors despite such risks.

US stocks: A high-yielding oasis

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 16:03:43 GMT

US stock markets are still near all-time records, and yet other markets suggest that investors are increasingly worried about a global slowdown in growth. Jamie Chisholm, FT global markets correspondent, tells John Authers that this may be because US stocks still offer high dividends in a world of very low yields.

Migrant workers driving China's economy

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 04:00:25 GMT

The rise in spending power of China's 220m migrant workers is supporting the country's economy as manufacturing stalls. James Kynge, principal of China Confidential, explains how a labour shortage is inflating wages and what this mighty consumer cohort is buying.

China to US: a second 'great rotation'

Mon, 15 Apr 2013 05:21:00 GMT

There has been a lot of talk about the 'great rotation' from bonds to stocks but are we about to see one from east to west or from China to the US? Chris Watling of Longview Economics talks to the FT's John Authers about green shoots in the US.

No industrial policy, we're British

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 04:10:20 GMT

Two years ago George Osborne, chancellor, wished that a 'march of the makers' would help to lift the UK economy. But as the stagnation continues, there is little sign of an industrial revival. Professor John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, explains to Ferdinando Giugliano, FT leader writer, how industrial policy can help to get the economy going again.

Venezuelan close call erupts into violence

Wed, 17 Apr 2013 04:00:30 GMT

Violence has erupted in Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro won the narrowest of victories in last weekend's presidential election, with opposition leader Henrique Capriles questioning the result. John Paul Rathbone, the FT's Latin America editor, discusses with Jonathan Wheatley, deputy emerging markets editor, the implications of the disputed result on the country and investors' view of it.

Divergent eurozone lending rates

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 05:01:04 GMT

Since Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' vow, sovereign bond markets in Europe have calmed and converged but the interest rates for small business in the core and the periphery remain divergent. Huw Pill, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses with Ralph Atkins, FT's capital markets editor, the extent of the problem and how the European Central Bank could tackle it.

UK stagnating - can it catch US?

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 04:10:35 GMT

Britain is on the hard shoulder of a three-speed world. Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, explains to Sarah O'Connor, the FT's economics correspondent, why the UK is stagnating, but has a chance to catch the US.

African currencies under pressure

Thu, 11 Apr 2013 04:03:25 GMT

African currencies are at risk of depreciation at a time of unprecedented investor interest. Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered Bank, considers with William Wallis, the FT's Africa editor, whether this development is a country-specific issue or reflects a broader continental trend.

Will Japan bail out the eurozone?

Wed, 10 Apr 2013 05:19:03 GMT

Japan's aggressive quantitative easing programme to reflate its economy is encouraging its investors to look overseas - and having knock on effects on the crisis-hit eurozone. But as Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon, explains to capital markets editor Ralph Atkins it needs to be more than speculative money to really help the eurozone.

Shale – it's a gas, gas, gas!

Tue, 09 Apr 2013 04:02:11 GMT

The dynamics of the US natural gas market has been radically altered by the shale boom, offering a sizeable boon to US economic competitiveness. Gregory Meyer, US commodities correspondent, discusses the impact of cheaper gas with Long View columnist John Authers.

Italy still awaiting leadership

Fri, 05 Apr 2013 04:05:44 GMT

Rome has a new pope but not a government. Investors are calm for now but the recession is hitting hard. Silvio Peruzzo, senior European economist at Nomura, discusses with Ferdinando Giugliano, FT leader writer, how long markets will wait and what business expects from the next government.

Another Argentine default looms?

Thu, 04 Apr 2013 04:34:45 GMT

The legal battle between hedge funds and Argentina is pivotal to the sovereign debt market. Robin Wigglesworth, capital markets correspondent, discusses with Michael Stothard whether the outcome could trigger another Argentine default.

Euro over-reaction to Cyprus

Tue, 02 Apr 2013 05:00:00 GMT

The euro, which rode out the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, has suffered at the hands of relatively tiny Cyprus. Steven Saywell, global head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas, explains to currencies correspondent Alice Ross why the recent slide is overdone.

Don't mention capex

Tue, 02 Apr 2013 05:52:28 GMT

Companies in Europe are sitting on unprecedented levels of cash but are nervous about re-investing. Karen Olney, equity strategist at UBS, tells Europe markets reporter Alexandra Stevenson why companies are still cautious, even as US capital expenditure is picking up.

Cyprus response muted

Fri, 29 Mar 2013 00:46:00 GMT

Marc Chandler, BBH chief foreign exchange strategist, speaks with John Authers of the Financial Times about what the global financial system looks like a week into the crisis in Cyprus.

From bailouts to bail-ins

Thu, 28 Mar 2013 06:02:10 GMT

The rescue deal for Cyprus has tilted the balance from bailouts to bail-ins - from taxpayers to investors, which leaves investors taking the hit. Olivia Frieser, head of European credit research at BNP Paribas, discusses with Mary Watkins, FT's capital markets correspondent, the changing landscape for senior investors absorbing losses in the event of a bank failing.

Orthodox rate cut from Hungary's central bank

Tue, 26 Mar 2013 17:18:56 GMT

Hungary's central bank governor, the dovish György Matolcsy, has cut rates by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 5 per cent - a pretty orthodox move. Hungary's currency, the forint, is one of the worst performers in emerging markets due to concerns that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's unorthodox economic approach would spread to the central bank. Neil Buckley, the FT's eastern Europe editor, discusses with Stefan Wagstyl, emerging markets editor, whether this cautious cut will help the forint.

Japan: What is Abenomics?

Tue, 26 Mar 2013 05:44:25 GMT

Deflation has dogged Japan for two decades. Shinzo Abe is finally trying to grasp the nettle and do something about it. David Pilling, the FT's Asia editor, discusses with John Authers whether Mr Abe's gamble will be worth the risk.

Asia's inflation problem

Mon, 25 Mar 2013 05:41:02 GMT

Western economies may be exporting inflation through monetary policy, but with rising domestic demand across the region and wages expanding faster than the economy in China, the threat of a rise in core inflation is looming. HSBC's Frederic Neumann talks to John Authers about why investors should be wary.

Euro: Speaking the unthinkable

Tue, 14 Feb 2012 11:32:00 GMT

In the latest twist to the eurozone sovereign debt saga, Greece's potential new prime minister says he may not honour the country's bailout deal after the spring elections. John Authers, Long View columnist, and Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon, discuss whether the euro's apparent strength this year is all that it seems.