Global Economy

Greek exit ajar

Mon, 14 May 2012 14:16:10 GMT

The market slump on the latest Greek political uncertainty has left investors befuddled. Lex's Nikki Tait and Vincent Boland discuss the many factors to watch now a Greek exit from the eurozone is becoming an acceptable notion.

How logic can lead to a crisis

Tue, 08 May 2012 04:19:00 GMT

John Authers, Long View columnist, asks Amin Rajan, chief executive of research company, Create, why this political crisis needn't be a market meltdown - and whether academic theories about efficient markets have actually contributed to the markets' problems.

French election a close call

Fri, 04 May 2012 11:48:00 GMT

Voters in France head to the polls on Sunday to choose between Socialist candidate, François Hollande, and the centre-right incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy for their next president. Most expectations are for a Socialist victory but Ewen Stewart, equity strategist at Investec, tells Long View columnist John Authers, that while odds on Mr Sarkozy are long, he shouldn’t be written off just yet.

Differences emerge

Thu, 03 May 2012 01:10:00 GMT

Emerging markets may have been somewhat overlooked as investors' attention has been focused on the eurozone crisis over the past few months. Masha Gordon, head of emerging markets equity portfolio management at Pimco, tells John Authers, Long View columnist, that there are investment opportunities but not all emerging market economies are equal.

Australia's gas strategy

Wed, 02 May 2012 04:28:00 GMT

Australia is weaning itself off its reliance on iron ore and coal exports and has high hopes for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Lex's Richard Stovin-Bradford and Julia Grindell discuss the country's LNG strategy and the risks from as far afield as the US shale sands.

Conquering fear

Tue, 01 May 2012 00:27:00 GMT

With persistent volatility across world markets, John Authers, Long View columnist asks Izabella Kaminska, Geneva correspondent and Alphaville writer, if new products really do allow investors to predict market swings and protect against them.

Sunk cost

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 05:54:00 GMT

An Australian mining mogul has announced plans to build a replica of the Titanic. James Mackintosh, investment editor, notices a worrying trend for ambitious projects like this to be dreamt up at the height of a boom. James asks if this is a bad omen for the Australian economy.

An oil bubble?

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 01:54:00 GMT

Javier Blas, commodities editor, tells John Authers, Long View columnist, that current high oil prices are being driven by fundamental supply and demand concerns rather than speculation.

3M's George Buckley on boosting growth

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 10:22:00 GMT

Governments should focus on manufacturing, mining and agriculture to create value in their economies, according to Sir George Buckley, retiring chief executive of 3M, the diversified manufacturer famous for Scotch tape. Sir George explains to capital markets editor Richard Milne about business heroes, competitiveness, innovation and his plans post 3M.

Investing with style

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 02:16:00 GMT

Value investors are faring poorly, despite market conditions that usually favour them. Why? John Authers, Long View Columnist and Robert Schwob, Principal at Style Research, dig into the factors behind value's underperformance.

Statistics, forecasts and austerity Britain

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 06:42:00 GMT

There are lies, damn lies and British national statistics. James Mackintosh, investment editor, wonders if the recession might be revised away - and says a UK recession should not be high on investors' worry lists

America's hidden treasure

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 00:45:00 GMT

John Authers, Long View columnist and David Morris, founder and chief executive of Global Wealth Allocation, reveal the unnoticed rise in the value of US companies

$100 oil looks set to stay

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 00:04:22 GMT

Demand from emerging markets, instability in the Middle East, geopolitics - all have conspired to raise oil prices at a time when the global economy needs it least. Javier Blas, commodities editor, reports from the FT's Global Commodities Summit on why costs are hanging at around $100 a barrel and why many leading traders now see this as a floor for the price of oil.

The euro puzzle

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 06:03:00 GMT

Amid the latest round of the eurozone crisis the single currency has stayed strong. James Mackintosh, investment editor, considers whether the market is valuing the euro correctly.

China blowing Treasuries bubble?

Tue, 17 Apr 2012 05:32:00 GMT

Treasuries now offer just return-free risk, according to author Jim Grant, with yields driven down by the US Federal Reserve and Chinese buying. James Mackintosh, investment editor, examines whether China actually has the influence everyone believes.

The dark side of LTRO

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 05:03:00 GMT

The European Central Bank’s “longer-term refinancing operation” has boosted share prices around the world and has lowered borrowing costs for hard-pressed eurozone countries like Italy and Spain. But is the ECB’s shot of cheap funding a silver bullet – or just another dangerous sugar high? Alberto Gallo, head of European Credit RBS, and Mary Watkins, the FT's capital markets correspondent, talks to analysis editor Frederick Studemann about the latest attempt at crisis resolution.

Eastward shift in super-rich

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 04:09:00 GMT

One fifth of the world's super-rich are from Russia and China. Lex's Nikki Tait and Vincent Boland discuss the global shift in multi-billionaires.

Jinxed generation

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 00:14:00 GMT

The disposable incomes of people in their twenties have stagnated in the last decade while those of other generations have continued to rise. Chris Giles, economics editor, who has researched the UK's changing income patterns across generations, explains to Long View columnist John Authers why the youngest members of working age society are now doing no better than their parents.

Is Italy out of the woods?

Thu, 29 Mar 2012 03:32:00 GMT

Mario Monti, Italy's technocrat prime minister, this week said the crisis is over. Italian bond yields have fallen sharply this year but is the country really out of the woods? Rodolfo De Benedetti, chief executive of CIR, talks to the FT's capital markets editor Richard Milne about whether Italy really has been saved.

Mexico's missed opportunities

Thu, 29 Mar 2012 02:30:00 GMT

Mexico is running out of oil, suffering from a drug war and has an uncompetitive economy. But John Paul Rathbone, Latin American editor, tells Long View columnist John Authers why he’s optimistic about the country.

Eurozone: it's not over

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 11:13:00 GMT

The European Central Bank's LTROs have driven a return of confidence in the eurozone. Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, explains to Long View columnist John Authers what they haven't done; the picture for bank lending remains difficult, and the ECB remains more hawkish than other central banks.

Eurozone 'firewall': how much is enough?

Mon, 26 Mar 2012 03:23:00 GMT

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, is poised to bow to international pressure and allow a temporary increase in the eurozone’s financial “firewall” this week. Lex's Richard Stovin-Bradford and Vincent Boland discuss the risks attached.

Candidates quiet on French debt

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 11:42:00 GMT

The presidential election in France is a month away and the candidate of the left François Hollande still leads incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy. Karen Olney, head of thematic research at UBS, tells Long View columnist John Authers that neither candidate has explained how he will tackle France's debt. This is affecting investment sentiment.

Monti flexing labour

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 03:17:00 GMT

Mario Monti, Italy's technocrat prime minister, is seeking to make the country's labour laws more flexible. Lex's Richard Stovin-Bradford and Vincent Boland discuss the importance of the move and the chances of its success.

Budget 2012: The FT verdict

Wed, 21 Mar 2012 06:31:00 GMT

Lionel Barber, Financial Times editor, says George Osborne has delivered a broadly positive budget that is good for business. The FT's Seb Morton-Clark talks to Philip Stephens, chief political commentator, Chris Giles, economics editor, and Jonathan Guthrie, City editor, about the chancellor's economic plan.

Middle classes lose out in Budget

Wed, 21 Mar 2012 04:37:00 GMT

Matthew Vincent, personal finance editor, talks to the FT's Daniel Garrahan about whether reducing the top rate of tax to 45p will raise additional revenue for the chancellor and if retired people and the middle classes will benefit from changes to state pensions and child benefits.

Osborne's 50p gamble

Wed, 21 Mar 2012 04:12:00 GMT

George Parker, political editor, tells the FT's Daniel Garrahan that this year's Budget sets the scene for the general election but won't move markets.

China easing - global opportunity

Wed, 21 Mar 2012 11:36:00 GMT

China has started to ease its monetary policy, possibly heralding investment opportunities across the globe. Melissa Kidd, director of equity strategy at Lombard Street Research, explains to Long View columnist John Authers which countries should benefit most - and which seem overvalued.

What would you say to the Chancellor?

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 17:26:17 GMT

In the final part of the series, Darlington residents tell Sarah O'Connor, economics reporter, what they would most like to see Chancellor George Osborne deliver in today's budget announcement.

Europe's debt crisis: far from over

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 03:33:00 GMT

Is Europe's sovereign debt crisis over as markets appear to be thinking? George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS, and Stephen King, HSBC's group chief economist, explain to markets editor Chris Adams that the debt crisis is in abeyance and, without growth in the peripheral nations, the region's woes will only worsen.

How do you feel about the future?

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 18:17:32 GMT

Sarah O'Connor, economics reporter, gauges the hopes and fears of residents of Darlington in the north-east of England as Chancellor George Osborne's budget approaches.

The UK north-south divide

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 03:52:00 GMT

The north east of England, once an industrial powerhouse, is now an unemployment blackspot. In the week of the UK Budget, Daniel Garrahan reports on the region's unemployed and underemployed.

How is the economy treating you?

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 08:31:00 GMT

In the run up to Chancellor George Osborne's 2012 budget residents of Darlington in the north-east of England tell Sarah O'Connor, economics reporter, how they are coping with current economic conditions.

QE and annuities

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 11:43:00 GMT

Low interest rates and bond yields may be what the economy needs, but they are reducing the annuities on offer when people retire, and creating stress for pension funds. Norma Cohen, economics correspondent, explains to Long View columnist John Authers that QE also has advantages for those who are still saving for their pensions.

Deconstructing deleveraging

Thu, 15 Mar 2012 11:24:00 GMT

The US and Europe are approaching deleveraging in different ways; the eurozone is trying austerity, while the US has opted for artificially depressing bond yields. Neither is easy. Michala Marcussen, chief economist at Société Générale CIB, explains the pros and cons to Long View columnist John Authers.

Africa: the sleeping lion

Wed, 14 Mar 2012 00:01:00 GMT

The economic performance of sub-Saharan Africa is pulling ahead of the developed world, and more popular emerging regions such as Latin America. Stuart Culverhouse, global head of research at Exotix, explains to Long View columnist John Authers that this is reflected in the region's bond markets but not yet in its equities.

Gavyn Davies: QE3 difficult to justify

Tue, 13 Mar 2012 11:26:00 GMT

As they meet today the Federal Reserve's governors face a dilemma; with unemployment creeping lower while inflation rises, can they justify a third round of stimulative quantitative easing? Gavyn Davies, chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management, explains to Long View columnist John Authers that while the Fed is keen for QE3, it needs to bring inflation more under control first.

Has eurozone bought enough time?

Mon, 12 Mar 2012 01:53:00 GMT

Greece's new bonds, the replacements for the €206bn debt exchange completed on Friday, are trading at distressed levels. Gary Jenkins, managing director of Swordfish Research explains to Capital Markets Editor Richard Milne that growth is what's needed to stop Greece coming back for another bailout and to prevent eurozone contagion from spreading beyond Portugal.

Iran diplomacy and the US election

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 04:52:00 GMT

Iran and the outside world have agreed to return to the negotiating table in yet another bid to resolve the nuclear dispute with Tehran. Frederick Studemann, FT Analysis editor, is joined by Cliff Kupchan, Head of the Russia and CIS program at the Eurasia Group, and James Blitz, the FT’s defence and diplomatic editor to discuss the outlook.

The Putin discount

Fri, 09 Mar 2012 11:51:00 GMT

Russian equities have risen 190 per cent since world stock markets' post-Lehman nadir three years ago, but they are still at a steep discount to other emerging markets. Stefan Wagstyl, emerging markets editor, tells John Authers, Long View columnist, about the markets' on-off love affair with president-elect Vladimir Putin.

Greece priced for next default

Thu, 08 Mar 2012 05:29:00 GMT

As the Greek debt-swap nears completion, a grey market for the new bonds is operating under rules designed for developing countries. James Mackintosh, investment editor, analyses whether investors should regard the price as a bargain or an invitation to be a victim of the next default.

Oil simmers

Thu, 08 Mar 2012 00:11:00 GMT

The price of a barrel of Brent crude is at a record high in terms of euros, raising fears of a price spike to match the oil shock that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution. Jack Farchy, commodities correspondent, explains to John Authers, Long View columnist, that supply limitations, and not fear over Iran, lie behind the price rise so far.

Overheating oil

Wed, 07 Mar 2012 02:21:00 GMT

A climbing oil price can be a sign of economy recovery but also a drag. Lex discuss the many factors driving the rise in crude and their implications.

No PSI for Portugal

Wed, 07 Mar 2012 11:33:00 GMT

Greece is worrying markets again ahead of Thursday's deadline for private sector bond-holders to sign up to the writedown they will suffer in the €206bn Greek debt restructuring (PSI). Another worry is waiting in the wings: Portugal. Michael Gallagher, director of research at IDEAGlobal, suggests a second bail-out will be required for Portugal - but probably not a writedown for private investors.

Libor: big numbers, big questions

Tue, 06 Mar 2012 05:12:00 GMT

It's integral to the global financial machine and used to generate $350tn in financial products. But investigations into possible manipulation of the inter-bank offered rate, or Libor, are raising questions over its legitimacy and future use. Seb Morton-Clark reports on the allegations and their potential impact.

A tale of two easings

Tue, 06 Mar 2012 05:19:00 GMT

Investors are sobering up after the party of the past few months and stocks are down for a third day. James Mackintosh, investment editor, compares to the post-QE2 rally and says a central-bank driven rally may now need reassurance from the real economy.

Debt mountain

Tue, 06 Mar 2012 11:43:00 GMT

It's exhilarating scaling a mountain but the descent is often much riskier. The same is true of scaling back a debt mountain. Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, explains to John Authers, the FT's Long View columnist, that deleveraging could still have many years to run. Indeed, the process has barely started.

ECB's fire hydrant funding

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 03:33:00 GMT

Under the European Central bank's longer-term re-financing operation (LTRO) 800 banks took €530bn of three-year loans at 1 per cent on Wednesday. The next day they parked all that and more (€777bn) straight back at the ECB. Lex's Vincent Boland and Richard Stovin-Bradford discuss whether this eurozone quantitative easing is having the effect the central bank is hoping.

Gold and the basket case

Fri, 02 Mar 2012 11:53:00 GMT

Emerging countries have been increasing their reserves of gold, but can it again be a stabiliser for the global financial system? Gerard Lyons, chief economist of Standard Chartered, thinks that as the dollar's reserve currency status weakens, the anchor cannot be gold but rather a basket of alternative currencies to the dollar.

Ad spend indicator

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 03:12:00 GMT

Advertising revenue is keeping pace with, or even outpacing, economic growth in many regions of the world. Lex's Vincent Boland and Nikki Tait discuss what may be driving this and if its good news for the economic outlook.