Short View

Dollar bull run?

Fri, 17 May 2013 11:32:00 GMT

The dollar is up 5 per cent against major currencies this year, and has sparked talk of a multiyear bull run. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says the greenback should be strong - but the bulls need a lot more evidence of US growth than we have seen so far.

The American exception

Thu, 16 May 2013 10:56:00 GMT

Investors are betting on a US recovery and Chinese weakness, as semiconductor shares lead cyclicals higher. James Mackintosh warns that the market looks vulnerable if housing or jobs data falter.

Spiking Japan

Tue, 14 May 2013 05:31:00 GMT

Japanese 10-year bond yields have had their biggest three-day rise since 2003. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says the belief that deflation can be defeated may be more accurate this time - but does not mean sustainable growth will be assured.

Biotech high

Tue, 14 May 2013 11:03:00 GMT

Biotech stocks have performed well in the US this year. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says hopes are high for easier regulation and improved discovery rates. Yet this remains unsubstantiated - and speculation should be expected.

Japan's dash for trash

Thu, 09 May 2013 05:27:00 GMT

The Bank of Japan has turned on the printing presses and stock market winners should be clear. But as James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains, once the yen collapse is filtered out, signs of belief in an economic renaissance are hard to see.

Kiwi flies

Thu, 09 May 2013 11:31:00 GMT

High-yielding havens such as Sweden, New Zealand and Australia are being drawn into the global currency war. But as James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains, simple carry trade economics helps keep their currencies strong, while global slowdown will weaken them

Defensives froth over

Wed, 08 May 2013 11:16:00 GMT

Equity markets have climbed to record highs, driven by the search for yield and bond proxies. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says cyclicals may be returning to favour rather than defensives because the latter are getting very expensive.

Charging for deposits

Fri, 03 May 2013 11:51:00 GMT

Forget the cut in the ECB's headline interest rate, announced by its president Mario Draghi on Thursday - investor attention was on his hint that a negative deposit rate was more likely than had been thought, prompting a sharp drop in the euro. James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains why it is the deposit rate, not lending rate, that really matters.

True Libor

Thu, 02 May 2013 11:16:00 GMT

Perhaps Libor should stand for London's Imaginary Offered Rate, with so little real lending going on. It was not the most sensible peg for $350tn of derivatives and has become a byword for fraud. But James Mackintosh, investment editor, suggests markets might still prefer it to the equally malleable alternatives.

Apple bites into corporate bonds

Wed, 01 May 2013 01:09:00 GMT

Apple on Tuesday rewrote record books again with a $17bn bond issue with rock-bottom yields. James Mackintosh, investment editor, considers how long the credit bubble can continue.

Italy axes austerity

Tue, 30 Apr 2013 11:21:00 GMT

Investors demanded Europe's governments balance their budgets. When austerity and recession resulted, they rapidly changed their focus to growth. James Mackintosh, investment editor, looks at Italy, and its banks.

Ireland’s soggy patch

Fri, 26 Apr 2013 11:24:00 GMT

Ireland has been hailed as a model of austerity-driven recovery by Europe’s politicians. Unfortunately the recovery is reversing. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says Europe is unlikely to allow Ireland’s soft patch to deteriorate further.

Tigers of the wild frontier

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 11:31:00 GMT

The global hunt for yield drove investors this morning to offer Rwanda almost half its GDP as its bond offer was wildly oversubscribed. James Mackintosh, investment editor, analyses the demand for Africa's tigers despite three defaults this year in frontier markets.

Bad news is bad news for bears

Wed, 24 Apr 2013 11:38:00 GMT

Bad news on Europe's economy is good news for equity markets but bad news for Germany and bears. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says investors are ignoring poor fundamentals but betting that the free money prop from central banks won't improve the outlook any time soon.

Italy's non solution

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 09:52:16 GMT

Giorgio Napolitano at nearly 90 has been re-elected as Italy's president. Even he says this is a non-solution. James Mackintosh, investment editor, deciphers why markets are so pleased and wonders where Italy's growth will come from.

Dangerous dividends

Fri, 19 Apr 2013 09:30:24 GMT

High dividend stocks are in great demand as investors seek alternatives to negligible bond yields. James Mackintosh, investment editor, warns that high-yielding stocks are in danger of being overvalued and the urge to offer higher dividends to make the stock more attractive risks damping much needed investment.

A brighter shade of gloom

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 10:18:09 GMT

Come April or May in northern climes spring blossoms arrive, but of late it has coincided with an annual market retreat. James Mackintosh, investment editor, finds a silver lining amid the decline.

US lumbering along

Wed, 17 Apr 2013 10:37:10 GMT

Forecasting is hard, especially about the future, but investors are assuming that US housing will deliver economic growth. James Mackintosh, investment editor, finds some cracks in the foundations.

Gold leads the falls

Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:36:17 GMT

Gold has been plunging in the past fortnight, down about 15 per cent. Meanwhile industrial metals have fallen to their lowest level since mid-2009. James Mackintosh, investment editor, looks at how China's slowdown is sending commodities into a tizz.

The cost of inflation protection

Fri, 12 Apr 2013 10:58:00 GMT

Nervous investors are willing to lock in a guaranteed real-terms loss for half a century. Forced gold sales by struggling Europeans could mean the yellow metal is no hedge against inflation either. James Mackintosh, investment editor, warns there's no cheap way to protect against rising prices.

EMs hit the yen jackpot

Wed, 10 Apr 2013 10:42:58 GMT

Japan's extraordinary quantitative easing programme has led investors to bet that the newly-minted yen will head for emerging markets. Local currency bond yields are at a new record low as a result. James Mackintosh, investment editor, considers the effect of these bets on emerging market currencies and equities.

Kuroda's remedy falls short

Tue, 09 Apr 2013 11:52:00 GMT

Japanese stocks soared immediately after Haruhiko Kuroda, the new governor of Japan's central bank, announced a vast quantitative easing programme. However, a rotation on Tuesday saw finance shares fall back slightly and the overall market remain flat. James Mackintosh, the FT's investment editor, says investors are not betting on an economic recovery.

The woes of gold

Fri, 05 Apr 2013 03:13:31 GMT

Stephen Foley, the FT's markets correspondent, says a number of forces have combined to sour the outlook for the precious metal, and none of them seem likely to abate any time soon.

Hard hat time for eurozone banks

Thu, 28 Mar 2013 11:21:59 GMT

A suggestion by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister, that the Cyprus deal could mean depositors at troubled banks elsewhere in the eurozone also suffering has pushed banks back into bear territory. James Mackintosh, investment editor, warns of the risk of a vicious downward spiral unless Europe and the European Central Bank can reflate peripheral economies.

Bond proxy investment block

Wed, 27 Mar 2013 11:53:24 GMT

The S&P 500 is gnawing at an all-time high. Bond proxy stocks are driving the rally and James Mackintosh, investment editor, warns that as companies opt for share buy-backs rather than reinvesting, future profits and investors will be the poorer.

US warning: Eurozone contagion a-coming

Fri, 22 Mar 2013 11:46:00 GMT

The old adage - the US sneezes and Europe catches a cold - is being turned on its head. As James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains, the weakness of the European economy will soon make itself known in the US in the form of earnings warnings and downgrades.

Osborne keeps inflation target locked

Wed, 20 Mar 2013 17:29:21 GMT

In the three months since George Osborne's Autumn Statement UK growth forecasts have halved and the debt outlook has ballooned. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says what is important in the chancellor's Budget is what he did not do.

Cyprus threatens suicide strategy

Wed, 20 Mar 2013 11:34:30 GMT

Cyprus is opting for the 'Blazing Saddles' suicide defence stratagem in the face of the EU's bailout demands. James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains that Cyprus is in a weak position being a tiny EU state, but it still takes very little to rekindle eurozone anxiety.

Dollar between paradigms?

Thu, 14 Mar 2013 05:21:00 GMT

The dollar would appear to be in a win-win world. The paradigm of rising risk appetite weakening the dollar appears to be over, but as James Mackintosh explains, this might not stretch to bad economic news undermining the greenback. Perhaps the US currency is between two paradigms.

Not so stunning recovery by Ireland

Thu, 14 Mar 2013 11:22:00 GMT

The bond market has stamped its seal of approval on Ireland's recovery, lapping up its first bond issue since the eurozone/IMF bailout. But as James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains, much of the improvement is less impressive than it appears.

Dr Copper vs the world

Wed, 13 Mar 2013 11:46:00 GMT

Copper lying idle in the warehouses of the London Metal Exchange says much about the world economy. James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains that the reluctant rally in equities has little to do with economic hopes, in spite of some new all-time highs.

Dormant Draghi ... for how much longer?

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 07:44:00 GMT

The European Central Bank - like the Bank of England - has decided against an immediate further loosening of monetary policy, but Mario Draghi, president, says some ECB policymakers favour cutting interest rates. Ralph Atkins, the FT's capital markets editor, argues that with small businesses in the eurozone's south facing a severe credit crunch and the stronger euro hitting eurozone exports, further action from the ECB may soon prove inevitable.

A tale of bond investor woe

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 11:39:00 GMT

An investor appeared to make sensible decisions with her family's savings - avoiding her home country of Greece, picking a safe haven and bonds rather than equities. But as FT Alphaville reporter Lisa Pollack explains, the Dutch bank that issued the bonds she chose was nationalised and all was lost - a consequence of new legislation on bank resolutions.

China takes a negative turn

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 11:44:00 GMT

Michael Mackenzie, the FT's US markets editor, says that after slow expansion in manufacturing, followed by a clampdown on rising property prices, China's benchmark equity market is on the verge of entering negative territory. With indices in other Bric countries already negative, prospects from the emerging world appear gloomy.

Markets take healthy pause

Wed, 27 Feb 2013 21:31:38 GMT

Michael Mackenzie, the FT's US markets editor, says that while consumer staples lag behind other major sectors in the S&P 500, gains in the sector are nearly 9 per cent - or 3 percentage points above gains in the index - suggesting investors are seeking havens in companies that sell life’s essentials

Sterling's Italian job

Tue, 26 Feb 2013 11:20:00 GMT

Uncertainty over the outcome of Italy's election has strengthened sterling as its safe haven status appeals in spite of Moody's downgrade of the UK. James Mackintosh, investment editor, examines the prospects for more of a bounce in sterling.

Fundamentals and the future

Fri, 22 Feb 2013 10:50:00 GMT

There are two things that matter in investing: what the fundamentals, such as earnings and the economy, are doing, and where they are expected to go. Investment editor James Mackintosh says when sentiment is extreme, investors will react much more strongly to any sign of bad news.

Sir Mervyn's walk on the wild side

Wed, 20 Feb 2013 06:44:00 GMT

The pound fell after it emerged that Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King voted for more quantitative easing a fortnight ago. James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains how investors are viewing the prospect of further easing and a weaker pound, after the FTSE 100 rose above 5,400 for the first time in five years.

Knowing me, knowing ZEW

Wed, 20 Feb 2013 00:15:00 GMT

Germany's ZEW survey was credited for a good day in the markets after showing investors were more positive about the economy than expected. James Mackintosh, investment editor, wonders about the circularity of the argument, and examines if the ZEW is a reliable indicator.

Asset price momentum always ends

Mon, 18 Feb 2013 19:57:36 GMT

Michael MacKenzie, the FT's US markets editor, talks about the recent decline in gold prices and the revival of the carry trade and whether the momentum behind these trades can last.

Looking through Warren Buffett's eyes

Fri, 15 Feb 2013 11:44:00 GMT

After Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway agreed, with a partner, to buy Heinz for $28bn, the hunt is on for the Sage of Omaha's next target. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says Buffett prefers safety to a bargain, but notes that Berkshire has underperformed the market - and Heinz - over the past decade.

Britain's inflation overshoot

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 11:18:00 GMT

The Bank of England predicts UK inflation will remain above its 2 per cent target for another two years at least. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says bond and sterling investors are finally starting to lose faith - but shareholders should be sanguine.

Yen and disorderly

Wed, 13 Feb 2013 11:28:00 GMT

The G7 by committing to not doing something has of course got folk worried about that very thing, in this case targeting exchange rates and in particular the falling yen. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says some serious disappointment will be needed to halt the weakening yen.

Banking on eurozone politicos

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 11:14:00 GMT

Eurozone politics have not gone away after all, with the latest battle over a Cyprus rescue. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says do not worry about Cyprus - but do worry about the rest of the region's banks.

Draghi's war games

Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:31:00 GMT

Mario Draghi managed on Thursday to talk down the euro - the latest volley in the cover 'currency wars'. Ralph Atkins, capital markets editor, analyses the president of the European Bank's verbal game theory.

Japan: a yen for equities

Thu, 07 Feb 2013 11:16:00 GMT

The Nikkei 225 jumped nearly 4 per cent on Wednesday, its 10th best day since the financial crisis. As James Mackintosh, investment editor, explains, much of this is down to the weakening of the yen. The index looks like it has further to go, but nothing is a sure bet when it comes to Japan.

A lifetime of losses

Wed, 06 Feb 2013 11:20:00 GMT

It is little surprise that investors have lost faith with equities. Returns after inflation, even low inflation, have been dismal over the past 15 years. James Mackintosh, investment editor, warns that low interest rates suggest low equity returns and, even worse, shares can lose money over a lifetime.

Is RoRo mode back on?

Tue, 05 Feb 2013 11:34:00 GMT

Politics is back on the agenda for investors. Spanish and Italian bond and stock markets took a tumble, reacting to a spreading slush fund scandal in Spain's ruling Popular party and rising support for former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi. James Mackintosh, investment editor, asks if a retreat from the eurozone's periphery will herald a shift in market paradigm.

Small rotations

Thu, 31 Jan 2013 05:21:00 GMT

Those hoping for a "great rotation" from bonds to stocks might start by looking for smaller rotations within the equity market. James Mackintosh, investment editor, says the signs are mixed.

In defence of US GDP

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 05:09:00 GMT

US GDP dropped in the fourth quarter of 2012 for the first time outside a recession since 1977, thanks to surprise cuts in defence spending. James Mackintosh, investment editor, finds some good signs in the data, but worries that if good news comes through on the economy that would be bad news for investors.