View from the Markets

Kessler bets on Treasuries

Tue, 08 Nov 2011 17:43:01 GMT

Robert Kessler, the founder and chief executive of The Kessler Companies, tells the FT’s Michael Mackenzie that Treasury rates will continue to come down, making them an attractive investment option. Mr Kessler says Treasuries are undervalued in part because Wall Street makes less money on Treasury transactions and therefore pushes them less.

Emerging markets 'undervalued'

Thu, 03 Nov 2011 02:11:04 GMT

Investors in emerging markets have had a difficult year in 2011 and markets are expecting them to underperform the developed world in 2012 in spite of the European crisis and sluggish growth in the US. Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia and Emerging Markets Strategist, says that scares over a hard landing for the Chinese economy and fallout from Europe mean valuations are now cheap

Learn to love volatility

Wed, 26 Oct 2011 06:03:00 GMT

Volatility in Europe is here to stay, but value can be found in these uncertain markets says David Jacob, chief investment officer at Henderson Global Investors. He tells Richard Milne, capital markets editor, why European equities are still worthwhile.

Economic worries dwarf US earnings rise

Thu, 20 Oct 2011 21:19:43 GMT

Christine Short, senior manager for S&P Capital IQ, tells the FT’s US markets editor, Michael Mackenzie, that worries over Europe and the United States continues to drag on markets despite a strong US third quarter earnings season.

Bond fund star focuses on deflation

Tue, 04 Oct 2011 20:52:56 GMT

Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine, which has been the best performing bond fund so far this year, tells the FT’s Dan McCrum that deflation is a greater risk than inflation because he believes it would take another crisis to trigger big monetary policy changes. Mr Gundlach says low economic growth is likely to persist and recommends hedging risk assets with long-term Treasury bonds.

Satyajit Das: Greece the next Lehman?

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:04:20 GMT

Satyajit Das, author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk, tells the FT’s Michael Mackenzie that a Greek default could trigger a wider financial crisis. Mr Das says global money markets could freeze and global inflation could increase commodity prices, resulting in sustained slow global growth.

Funding seen tightening

Thu, 08 Sep 2011 01:07:00 GMT

German bond-yields hitting all-time lows while the cost of insuring against debt defaults is at record levels. Simon Ballard, global credit strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, explains to Richard Milne, capital markets editor, that this reflects prevailing risk aversion and growth worries rather than fundamentals, and means companies will find it ever more difficult to source funds.

Risk appetite has fundamentally changed

Sun, 28 Aug 2011 18:33:53 GMT

Kevin Parker, who manages $700bn dollars as the head of Asset Management at Deutsche Bank, tells the FT’s Dan McCrum that investors have entered an asset-preservation environment. Mr Parker says he is focusing on organic growth by delivering consistent performance to clients.

No gold bubble

Wed, 17 Aug 2011 03:00:00 GMT

The political dithering in the US and the eurozone triggered market turmoil and has driven the safe haven of gold to record levels, peaking above $1,800 last week. David Wilson, director of metals research at Société Générale, predicts uncertainty could push the yellow metal above $2,000 this year. But when stability returns he does not expect a price collapse.

Ortus bullish on Yen

Mon, 15 Aug 2011 05:30:00 GMT

Joe Zhou, of Ortus Capital Management, tells the FT's Henny Sender why he is confident the Yen will weather global instability.

Uncertain times for Asian markets

Wed, 10 Aug 2011 05:15:00 GMT

Andy Xie, an independent economist, talks to Robert Cookson, Asia markets correspondent, on the outlook for Asian markets and how to benefit from recent market volatility

How low can they go?

Wed, 10 Aug 2011 04:26:00 GMT

It's meant to be the sleepy summer lull but equity markets have been in turmoil and there appears to be no respite. Is it all to do with thin volumes magnifying moves? Richard Milne talks to Adrian Cattley, European equity strategist at Citi.

Fed should be thrilled

Tue, 09 Aug 2011 22:33:39 GMT

Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of US fixed income strategy at Barclays Capital, tells Aline van Duyn, the FT’s US markets editor, that the Fed's decision to hold down interest rates until mid-2013 has so far had the intended effect of calming the risk markets.

Weak growth shakes investors

Thu, 04 Aug 2011 16:22:49 GMT

Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of US fixed income at Barclays Capital, tells FT US markets correspondent Michael MacKenzie the recent debt deal will likely not be enough to avert a US rating downgrade. Mr Rajadhyaksha says now concern about weak growth is making risk assets increasingly volatile.

Europe's 'safe haven': corporate bonds

Thu, 21 Jul 2011 06:02:00 GMT

The corporate debt market in Europe remains fundamentally strong despite the crisis on the periphery, says Demetrio Salorio, global head of debt capital markets at Société Générale. He explains to Robin Wigglesworth, capital markets correspondent, why he expects to see increased interest in European corporate bonds.

No recession risk despite US job data

Tue, 12 Jul 2011 21:00:49 GMT

Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, tells the FT’s Michael Mackenzie that he was not shocked by June's US employment numbers and that leading economic indicators do not predict a double-dip.

Full Russian bank privatisation long way off

Fri, 08 Jul 2011 04:44:00 GMT

Russia's banking system became more open leading up to the banking crisis but the state's share has grown considerably since. Erik Berglöf, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, explains to Stefan Wagstyl, emerging markets editor, how the EBRD would like to see Russia develop its banking system, how he expects privatisation to come once valuations are more attractive, but doesn't see the state ceding full control for quite some time.

Latest Greece proposals 'not sufficient'

Thu, 30 Jun 2011 04:54:00 GMT

The French roll over proposal to address Greece's debt sustainability problems is a welcome acknowledgement of the need to restructure but, says Jens Larsen, chief European economist at RBC Capital Markets, it will not be enough to solve the issue or reduce the possibility of contagion. He tells Richard Milne, capital markets editor, what he believes the true end game will involve.

Calm settles on markets post-Arab spring

Wed, 22 Jun 2011 04:07:00 GMT

The Arab spring turned nations and markets inside out. Ann Wyman, head of emerging markets research at Nomura, talks to Robin Wigglesworth, capital markets correspondent, about how economies in north Africa and the Gulf have fared since the historic events at the start of the year.

Subprime debt on losing streak again

Wed, 15 Jun 2011 21:25:53 GMT

Paul Jablansky, a senior US strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland, tells the FT’s Aline van Duyn that the residential mortgage-backed securities market is struggling as the housing market continues to decline and the US Federal Reserve sells holdings.

UBS’s Magnus: Greek default near inevitable

Tue, 07 Jun 2011 04:55:00 GMT

George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS, the investment bank, tells the FT's John Plender that the size of Greece's public sector debt is simply too big for ongoing austerity measures to fix and that its economy is uncompetitive and in need of fiscal reform.

BlackRock: More funds for European banks

Thu, 26 May 2011 16:27:17 GMT

Peter Fisher, the head of fixed income at BlackRock, the world's largest money manager, tells the FT’s Dan McCrum that fixing the banks is key to stabilising Europe. Mr Fisher also says that he expects the deleveraging process in the US housing market to put a drag on the economy for a decade.

Inflation hits emerging markets

Fri, 13 May 2011 03:22:00 GMT

Inflation is a mere slight breeze returning to Western economies, but in some emerging countries it is back in earnest. Philip Poole, HSBC's global head of investment strategy, explains to Stefan Wagstyl, emerging markets editor, how the recent commodity shock has triggered sharper inflation in some emerging economies and how loose Western monetary policy has exacerbated this.

Recovery slow but sustained

Fri, 06 May 2011 22:27:25 GMT

Credit Suisse interest rate strategist Ira Jersey, tells the FT's US Markets Correspondent Michael Mackenzie that the economy is still gaining momentum and interest rates can be expected to rise

Politics complicates debt woes

Thu, 21 Apr 2011 04:59:00 GMT

The downgrade threat to the US credit rating by Standard & Poor's is a political move to force a solution to cutting the country's deficit, says Keith Wade, chief economist and strategist at Schroders. He tells the FT's Seb Morton-Clark that despite the risks, he's confident that the US will retain its triple-A rating.

US inflation bonds market ‘has it wrong’

Tue, 12 Apr 2011 20:08:51 GMT

George Goncalves, head of US interest rates strategy at Nomura Securities, tells the FT’s Michael Mackenzie that he does not expect to see substantial inflation in the near future. Mr Goncalves says higher commodity prices are a tax on society but not inflationary.

Spain 'decoupled from periphery'

Thu, 07 Apr 2011 03:18:00 GMT

Portugal requesting a European Union rescue package is the 'end of the beginning', as opposed to the end of the crisis, says Elisabeth Afseth of Evolution Securities. She explains to David Oakley, capital markets correspondent, why she also believes that the risk of Spain becoming embroiled in the EU's debt crisis is decreasing.

High yield bonds: a safe risk?

Tue, 29 Mar 2011 00:30:00 GMT

High yield or 'junk' bonds are usually treated with caution because of their risky and potentially costly nature. But Garland Hansmann, head of high yield at ICG, says that for those who can hold through the credit cycle, such bonds can outperform equities. He tells Anousha Sakoui, capital markets reporter, why high yield bonds can be a worthy long-term strategic asset class.

Are investors underestimating risk?

Tue, 22 Mar 2011 20:28:16 GMT

Dean Curnutt, chief executive of Macro Risk Advisors, works with investors to spot systemic risks in markets. Mr Curnutt tells the FT's US markets editor, Aline van Duyn, that though the story of an economic rebound has been strong, there are potential sources of systemic risks associated with eurozone sovereign debt, a worsening US housing market, potential global inflation and oil shocks.

The future for Japanese stocks

Tue, 15 Mar 2011 16:35:00 GMT

The global equity rally is still intact despite recent sell-offs triggered by the Japanese earthquake and inflation fears, says Andreas Utermann, chief investment officer at RCM, the Allianz fund manager. He tells Richard Milne, capital markets editor, that the Nikkei was due a correction and for those with the right exposure, now is a good time to buy.

ECB rate rises likely to be gradual

Tue, 08 Mar 2011 05:17:00 GMT

Jens Larsen, chief European economist at RCB Capital Markets, tells Richard Milne, capital markets editor, that because rate rises by the European Central Bank pose such a high risk to peripheral eurozone countries, he expects any increases to be small and slow.

US states face tough budget decisions

Thu, 03 Mar 2011 23:27:19 GMT

Robin Prunty, Standard and Poor's managing director of state ratings, says this will be the most challenging year for US states as they grapple with 2012 budgets. Facing policy challenges, budget choices and revenue short-falls, the states face an array of increasingly difficult decisions

Unrest aids EM sell-off

Wed, 23 Feb 2011 14:33:00 GMT

Instability in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in oil prices are combining with inflationary fears that are seeing investors recoil from emerging markets. But, says Ann Wyman, head of EM research for the EMEA region at Nomura, the abatement is also a natural rebalancing of last year's capital flows. She tells the FT's Richard Milne that investors will need to get more comfortable with attempts by policy makers to confront inflation if EM equities are to regain the momentum of 2010.

Goldman: US recovery is sustainable

Thu, 10 Feb 2011 00:05:19 GMT

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief US economist, offers a benign forecast for the US economy, but thinks the recovery is sustainable. He feels inflation is unlikely in the current US environment with output and employment still far below potential

Interest rises in 'boring' bonds

Fri, 04 Feb 2011 02:02:00 GMT

Mauricio Noe, Deutsche Bank's head of covered bonds, talks to Jennifer Hughes, senior markets correspondent, about the biggest month ever for the issuance of covered bonds and whether this trend will continue. These type of bonds are an ultra safe form of securitisation that remain on banks' balance sheets, unlike the toxic assets that played a big role in the financial crisis.

Arab world investors face growing risks

Wed, 26 Jan 2011 06:11:00 GMT

As the Arab world finds itself in flux following protests in Tunisia and now Egypt, Alia Moubayed, senior Middle East economist for Barclays Capital, says investors face not only growing political risk, but fiscal threats too, as governments consider increasing wages and subsidies.

Ex-Lehman VP: Volcker won’t stop crisis

Wed, 26 Jan 2011 10:07:50 GMT

Lawrence McDonald, a former vice president of distressed debt and convertible securities trading at Lehman Brothers until it collapsed in 2008, tells the FT's US markets editor, Aline van Duyn, that there will be growing pains with implementing the Volcker rule and profits may take a hit at places such as Goldman Sachs.

Portuguese bail-out would be wrong medicine

Wed, 12 Jan 2011 04:04:00 GMT

Lena Komileva from Tullett Prebon tells David Oakley, FT capital markets correspondent, that the eurozone crisis has been "badly diagnosed". Credit and solvency are the problem, not liquidity, so bail-outs should be replaced with a focus on strengthening institutions and improving growth prospects.

European sovereign debt crisis to escalate

Thu, 06 Jan 2011 00:52:00 GMT

Justin Knight, European bond strategist at UBS, tells Anousha Sakoui that increased sovereign bond issuance in the European periphery into a small investor base will continue to drive the crisis but we could see a resolution by the end of the year through some form of European fiscal union.

Asia 2011: More inflation and capital controls

Tue, 21 Dec 2010 07:21:20 GMT

For Asia, 2011 will be a year of more volatility, more inflation and more capital controls. Nicholas Kwan, Standard Chartered's head of Asia research, tells Josh Noble, the FT's Asia emerging markets editor, that opportunities abound amid the volatility.

Why junk bonds remain strong in 2011

Wed, 15 Dec 2010 04:49:09 GMT

Martin Fridson, a global credit strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, tells the FT's US markets editor, Aline van Duyn, that junk bonds will continue to be a strong investment in 2011, though he doubts they will match their 2010 numbers.

Why Turkey's markets remains strong

Tue, 07 Dec 2010 04:57:00 GMT

Turkey's stock market has been one of the strongest performers among emerging markets. Looking ahead to 2011, Tevfik Aksoy, a senior economist at Morgan Stanley, tells Barney Jopson, assistant editor of the FT's Beyond Brics blog, that the positives, such as internal demand and healthy banking, probably outweigh concerns over Turkey's trade deficit and an influx of "hot money".

EU must 'draw line in sand at Spain'

Mon, 29 Nov 2010 05:46:00 GMT

Capital markets editor Richard Milne discusses with Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities, the urgency with which European Union leaders must tackle contagion from the Irish financial crisis spreading to other member states, above all, Spain. He says the EU may soon have no choice but to create a "de facto fiscal union".

Blackrock boss Larry Fink defends QE2

Fri, 26 Nov 2010 16:11:16 GMT

Larry Fink, the chief executive of Blackrock, the worlds largest money manager, tells the FT’s Henny Sender that the US economy is improving but still has a long road toward recovery and warns about the remaining possibility of a double dip. He holds concerns about the politicizing of the Federal Reserve, as well as worrying that European debt crisis could get much worse.

Are more capital controls on the way in Asia?

Wed, 24 Nov 2010 15:31:08 GMT

Eight countries in Asia have implemented capital controls in a bid to stem the flow of capital fleeing the developed world. Rob Subbaraman, Nomura's chief Asia economist, talks to Robert Cookson, Asia markets correspondent, about whether more capital controls are on the way and what it means for investors.

Analyst plans to challenge S&P and Moodys

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 01:31:14 GMT

In an exclusive interview well-known financial analyst Meredith Whitney tells the FT’s Aline van Duyn that Meredith Whitney Advisory Group has submitted applications to become an officially chartered credit rating agency. Whitney criticised the major rating agencies Moodys and S&P for their poor performance in the lead up to the financial crisis and said her new group would avoid similar pitfalls by being more transparent.

Crisis looming in US municipal debt market?

Wed, 17 Nov 2010 01:13:46 GMT

Meredith Whitney rose to prominence as a financial analyst by predicting the problems at Citigroup. Ms Whitney has since started her own firm, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, and is now predicting dramatic declines in US home prices, large layoffs at US banks and widespread defaults in the municipal bond market.

'Real' debt measures reveal weakest states

Thu, 11 Nov 2010 07:01:00 GMT

More fears over defaults in the Eurozone have returned national deficits to the front page. But Matt King of Citigroup says there is little use in the conventional measures of government debt to GDP and budget deficits. Instead, private sector debt must also be taken into account. He tells the FT's Anousha Sakoui which countries are really in the danger zone.

What Rousseff win means for investors in Brazil

Tue, 02 Nov 2010 05:36:00 GMT

Wilber Colmerauer of investment advisers Brazil Funding assesses the impact Dilma Rousseff, Brazil's first female president, will have on foreign investors. He discusses with emerging markets assistant editor Barney Jopson how the leftwing ruling PT's successor to the hugely popular Lula da Silva will tackle the high currency and a large influx of "hot money".

Emerging market bubble long way off

Tue, 26 Oct 2010 14:25:34 GMT

With several emerging market equity indexes at all-time highs, some analysts fear a bubble is forming in developing economies. Geoff Dennis, Citi's global emerging markets strategist, says that bubble territory is some way away.